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Trends and Directions in Mobile and Wireless Leif-Olof Wallin Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner.
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Trends and Directions in Mobile and Wireless Leif-Olof Wallin Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. An Unsettled Mobile Year Vendors & operators Make or break strategies in 2010 & 2011 Business models evolve Ecosystems Platform wars App store competition, and the fight for developers & content Devices Smartphones rule the (developed) world New devices raise the bar for smartphones Clouds & Services Service innovation Context New mobile business models, e.g. advertising Key Issues 1. What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2014? 2. How will corporations choose and use mobile technology, services and tools to support customers and employees? Key Issues 1. What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2014? 2. How will corporations choose and use mobile technology, services and tools to support customers and employees? Cellular Network Opportunities & Challenges 1Gbps 4 bn 100 Mbps 3 bn GSM 10 Mbps 2 bn WCDMA & HSPA 1 Mbps 100 Kbps 1 bn 0 CDMA & EV-DO LTE HSPA LTE LTE-A Peak theoretical data rates Downlink Uplink Cellular subscribers by technology Clear technical roadmap to 4G, but many paths to get there Data demand is exploding, providing the capacity is possible but expensive Network performance has become a competitive issue Several generations of network will co-exist in most regions Smartphones Will Dominate Mature Market Mobility Device Shipments Smartphones as %ge handsets shipped 2.5 bn 100% 2.0 bn Mobile PCs WEU Japan 1.5 bn 1.0 bn 0.5 bn Smartphones 1 Enhanced phones 1 Basic phones % 0% NA LATAM EEU MEA APAC (1) Cellular MIDs are included in both the smartphone and enhanced phone categories Handset Platforms No-one Can Afford to Slip Up 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mobile Platform Market Share Symbian holds the lead, dominated by Nokia despite open source Android gains share and appears on more devices such as netbooks, e- books and non-phone MIDs iphone shipments grow but share changes little as the market expands RIM loses share to more consumeroriented platforms & ecosystems Windows Mobile. Complex microsoft strategy, includes WM7, WM6.x, Pink. Maemo / Meego replaces Symbian in high-end Nokia devices Others including Linux, webos, LIMO remain niche platforms Mobile Device Trends Form factors More device types in addition to laptops & smartphones Viability of nonpocketable MIDs, the new 0.5 Kg wasteland? 8 to 10 screen is the minimum for Windows 7 Trend towards thinner devices Transportable Portable Pocketable Personal Implanted Flexibility Portability Features / Technology GPS in 90% and WiFi in 70% smartphones shipped in 2013 OLED screens allow thinner devices and better battery life E-compass complements GPS in high-end devices More multi-touch on PCs (Windows 7) and handsets Growing interest in wireless charging and novel power sources Under 2% of all handsets will support WiMax by 2013 Mobile Technologies On Your Radar Screen Mobile HTML 5 Multicore handsets LTE Agents n Context Bluetooth 3 Touch interfaces Near Field Wireless Location awareness & augmented reality Widgets Bluetooth LE M2M & embedded wireless Mobile Web Wireless broadband Platform independent mobile AD App Stores Advanced mobile UIs Pico projectors Flexible displays The Emergence of Contextual Mobility Pre-context Simple single-vendor systems and walled gardens Open systems and federations Device centric Presence, PIM Device centric Location, Identity, Simple behavior and habits, Location-aware social networks Simple proactive alerts People centric Sensors, bio sensors Adjacent devices and people, Complex anticipatory behavior, Complex federated services, Contextual social networking Key Issues 1. What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2014? 2. How will corporations choose and use mobile technology, services and tools to support customers and employees? Mobile Collaboration Moblogs Image and video sharing Mobile social networking Location tracking Mobile PIM Shared information Mobile portals Communities Communication Collaboration Coordination Social Interaction Mobile presence and IM Voice Video Messaging such as SMS, mobile , Shared documents & MMS portals Interest sharing Mobile social networking Mobile microblogging Informal voice, messaging etc. Bring Your Own Mobility Employee-Owned Mobile Devices Formalise employee ownership Tolerance and policies Ban them No idea of the scope of the issue Exploitation Permission Prevention Ignorance Security issues of uncontrolled devices Stipends and taxation issues Who provides support? How to encourage standards? Is there a business case? If so what? Who should not buy their own devices? Controlled choice and managed diversity, e.g. platform, appliance and concierge Corporate cellular contracts on employeeowned devices Potential benefits: economic + employee satisfaction Survey in US, UK and Germany: 43% orgs. banned employee-owned PCs. Limits risk, but no benefit Risks & unknown benefits Make Employee-Owned Devices Safe(r) Non-PC PC Thin-client architectures HTML, Ajax architecture Citrix-like solutions Applications Applications as a service Portable personality Network access control Network Security as a service Virtualization Trust the user More Less Potential for addressing security challenges A New Enterprise Mobile Landscape Will Emerge From Consumer Vendors Mobile ecosystem and app. store Owns social networking Communications services (such as voice, IM, video, ) Emerging market mobile services Mobile consumer cloud services and context Social network with mobile extension APIs Applications & media, MobileMe, conferencing , IM, widget gallery, mobile search Growing Ovi services and app store Enterprise collaboration, UC, OneApp /im Android/Chrome platform, Web services, Wave Strong Moderate Weak M2M & Intelligent Machines Unlock New Business Opportunities Leading Applications 2010 Service & Contract Options AMR & smart grid Security / surveillance Automotive Vending & POS Remote monitoring Track & trace, geo-fencing Other, e.g. signage Service providers include: - M2M specialists, e.g. Wyless - Network operators, e.g. Orange, AT&T - Alliances Contract options include: - In-country (the majority) - Multinational for small data volumes - Bundled into consumer electronics price Future Opportunities Convert products into services Information stream products, e.g. e-books Smart connected products Green products Value Based Mobile Business Strategy What are your business goals & metrics? Who are the customers? Where are the customers, what s their context? Which devices and habits do your customers have? Non-smartphones 75% RIM 10% iphone 6% Other smartphones 4% Android 3% Microsoft 2% (illustration, not representative of any specific customer set) What will be the most profitable platform & technology mix? e.g. native vs mobile web vs SMS vs other What value will each customer platform deliver? The Increasingly Complex Mobile AD Portfolio MEAP Native tools + middleware e.g. Microsoft, RIM Classic MEAP tools e.g. Antenna, Syclo, Sybase, Spring Supporting tools, e.g. MDM Web HTML5 and pre-html5 tools e.g. Gears HTML & widget tools e.g. Dreamweaver Web oriented rich application tools e.g. Air, Flash, Silverlight MCAP Messaging tools & services e.g. Sybase365, Mblox Dynamic web adaptation e.g. Infogin, Netbiscuits Native tools e.g. Apple, Microsoft Cross platform tools e.g. Qt, Appcelerator, Java Packaged mobile app. tools e.g. Blue dot, Cognito, Vaultus,... Niche tools and emerging business models such as hosted AD e.g. Appbreeder, Appcelerator, BuildAnApp, Modomodo, Rhomobile... Business Imperative Action Plan Today Expect that every worker IT supports will become more mobile Define strategies to secure employee-owned devices and appliance mode devices which have access to corporate information During the Next 12 Months Mobile communication, collaboration and social networking will become a corporate need and a vendor battleground. Define a strategy New devices and app. stores will drive an explosion in consumer mobile applications on all platforms, some of these will enter the enterprise Explore platform-independent application development tools to provide some insulation from the platform wars Select B2C mobile strategies and technologies based on customer value, not platform hype Long Term Pilot tools and applications that exploit context Related Research Mobile Architectures, 2009 Through 2012: A Trend Toward Thin Nick Jones and Bill Clark, (G ) Gartner s View of Enterprise Mobility Leif-Olof Wallin, (G ) What the CIO Needs to Know About Mobile-App Stores and Ecosystems Nick Jones, (G ) Hype Cycle for Mobile Device Technologies, 2009 Various authors, (G ) Toolkit: Mobile and Remote Working is a Key Initiative for Leaders in Infrastructure and Operations Leif-Olof Wallin, Robin Simpson, (G ) How to Score, Compare and Prioritise Mobile Projects Based on Business Value Robin Simpson, Audrey Apfel, (G )
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