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Impact of Asian pollution on the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) anticyclone Suvarna Fadnavis 1, Martin G. Schultz 2, Kirill Semeniuk 3, Luca Pozzoli 4 and others 1 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology,
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Impact of Asian pollution on the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) anticyclone Suvarna Fadnavis 1, Martin G. Schultz 2, Kirill Semeniuk 3, Luca Pozzoli 4 and others 1 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India 2 Institute for Energy and Climate Research-Troposphere, Forschungszentrum Jülich, Germany 3 Department of Earth and Space Sciences and Engineering, York University, Toronto, Canada 4 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey Transport of boundary layer pollutants into the UTLS region via monsoon convection ASM is one of the most powerful atmospheric circulation systems and its effects are seen over a polluted region in Asia. Deep monsoon circulation provides an entry of tropospheric polluted air into the anticyclone. Past studies have suggested that the impact of Asian pollutants on the UTLS may increase in coming decades because of the economical development. H2O OC HCN BC CO2 SO2 PAN CH4 CO NOX Emission: CO2, CO, VOCs, BC, SO2,NOX Deep convective clouds and extreme rain fall over the ASM AIRS+MODIS AIRS+MODIS Goswami et al., Science, 2006 Aumann and Ruzmaikin, ACP, 2013 Rain-gauge Temporal variation (1951 to 2000) in the number (N) of (A) heavy (R 100 mm/day, bold line) and moderate (5 R 100 mm/day, thin line) daily rain events. Yao et al., JGR, 2008 Water vapor in the ASM anticyclone Maximum in CO, HCN, NO 2, PAN, aerosols.. in the ASM anticyclone Low ozone Gettelman et al., JGR, 2004 Transport into the UTLS linkages with Ocean-Atmosphere interaction H Brewer Dobson circulation East West cell Atmospheric circulation Monsoon Hadley circulation East-west circulation Brewer Dobson circulation L Monsoon Hadley Cell Ocean response to ASM El-Nino/La-Nina Indian Ocean dipole Impact of Asian pollution on the Asian monsoon anticyclone Key elements : ASM: NOx limited region, sensitive to ozone radiative forcing. Aerosols: High BC and dust aerosols affecting, temperature, cloud micro physics and monsoon precipitation through direct and indirect effects. emission mass flux (kg m 2 s 1 ) BC Sulphate NO X Impact of aerosols on the UTLS Impact of Asian NOx emission on PAN, HNO 3, ozone in the UTLS Transport from other monsoon systems to the ASM and vice-a-versa Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2013 Trend in NOx and AOD over India and China AOD NOx AOD at 550 mn at Trivandrun and Visakhapatnam Babu et al., JGR, 2013 Trend in Tropospheric NO 2 column over India = 3.8%/year (Ghude et al., 2013) China= 7.3 %/year (Schneider and van der A, 2012) Transport of aerosols into monsoon anticyclone: Model simulations 100 hpa BC OC SO 4 2- ECHAM5-HAMMOZ : Aerosol-chemistry-climate model, 10 member ensemble mean, 2003 The simulations show persistent maxima in black carbon, organic carbon, sulfate, and mineral dust aerosols within the anticyclone in the UTLS throughout the ASM (period from July to September). They indicate boundary layer aerosol pollution as the source of this UTLS aerosol layer and identify ASM convection as the dominant transport process. Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2013 Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2013 Convective Transport of Boundary layer aerosols BC O N CDNC+ICNC O N CDNC+ICNC E Convective transport from Southern Slopes of Himalayas Region extending BOB to South China Sea Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2013 Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2013 Aerosol distribution in the lower stratosphere HALOE (5.26 μm) 10:35N SAGEII (0.525 μm) 10:35N ECHAM5-HAMMOZ (0.550 μm) BC (10-35 O N) Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2013 Fadnavis al., ACP, 2013 Aerosol induced cloud ice 100 hpa E cloud ice Figure (a) -- A prominent feature at the eastern end of the anticyclone region, where the cloud ice anomaly has a maximum (15 mgm 3). Figure (b) -- Increase in cloud ice up to 10 μgm 3 near the tropical tropopause due to aerosol loading. Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2013 Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2013 Impact of aerosols on temperature, water vapour, and circulation Temperature Water vapor Circulation Temperature increases by 1 5K near the tropical tropopause. Tibetan Plateau experiences a significant warming. Increase in vertical transport of H 2 O over the southern flanks of the Himalayas. A weakening of the monsoon Hadley circulation due to aerosol forcing. Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2013 Aerosol induced changes in water vapor and precipitation 155 hpa 132 hpa Positive water vapour anomalies (0.2 3 ppmv) in the ASM anticyclone 110 hpa Precipitation Decrease in precipitation ~-1 to -3mm/day over southern India. At the eastern end of anticyclone there is significant increase in precipitation ~5 7 mm/day. Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2013 Distribution of Peroxyacetyl Nitrate (PAN) over ASM region Transport across the tropopause PAN averaged over the ASM region (10-35 O N; O E). Simulated PAN mole fractions are smoothed with the averaging kernel of MIPAS. MIPAS satellite and Model simulations show significant vertical transport by deep convection and diabatic heating induced upwelling. Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2014 PAN distribution in the monsoon anticyclone MIPAS Climatology (JJAS) and control simulations show PAN maximum in the monsoon anticyclone. MIPAS-E PAN is higher than model by ~30-60 ppt. These differences may be due to uncertainties in VOC, NO X emissions, chemistry represented in the model, transport errors and model coarse resolution. Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2014 Transport of PAN into the UTLS Transport of boundary layer PAN to UTLS mainly from strong convection region of the South China Sea (~ E) and Southern Flank of Himalaya (~80-90E). High levels of PAN over the northern subtropics (20-40 O N). The PAN is also transported from O N reaching up to 16 km. Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2014 Impact on PAN NOX Sensitivity experiments (a) India 38% (ind38) (b) China 73% (chin73) (c) India 38% +China 73% (ind38+chin73) (d) India 73% (Ind73) Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2014 Impact on HNO 3 Low HNO 3 at the slopes of Himalayas Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2014 Impact on ozone III. More increase in ozone in the monsoon anticyclone in the case of Chinese emissions compared to emissions from India. I. Increases in ozone (3-7% or ppt) over the Indian Ocean and South China Sea. II. Transport of ozone to Indian Ocean, South East Asia, the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean, by westerly winds. Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2014 Influence from other monsoon systems on the ASM UTLS Ref: The Climate Data Guide: GPCP (Monthly): Global Precipitation Climatology Project. PAN in the Global UTLS Signature of High PAN over global monsoon regimes ASM, Africa and America Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2015 Emission sensitivity experiments Comparison of emission change over Asia, North America and Africa shows highest transport of PAN, HNO 3 and ozone occurs in the UT over Asia and least over Africa. Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2015 Emission sensitivity experiments 10% change in Asian emissions, transport ~5-30 ppt of PAN in the UTLS over Asia, ~1-10 ppt of PAN in the UTLS of Northern subtropics and mid latitudes, ~7-10 ppt of HNO 3 and ~1-2 ppb of ozone in UT over Asia. Distribution of HNO 3 ASM Depletion of HNO 3 in the region of intense convection near the Himalayas. Efficient removal of NOx by wet scavenging NAM Transport from North America. NAM is not as intense and not as deep as ASM. Fadnavis et al., ACP, 2015 Summary Asian Aerosol and NO X emissions show significant impact on the UTLS. Simulations show significant change in NO X chemistry at the foot hills of Himalayas. Should be confirmed from observations. Aerosol induced changes in circulation, H 2 O and temperature causes reduction in Precipitation over India. Ozone radiative forcing due to enhanced NO X emission may feedback the Asian summer monsoon circulation. Needs detail analysis. Balloonsonde measurements in India Locations: Nainital and Nagpur 1. Radiosonde : 25Nos 2. Ozonesonde: 25 Nos 3. Aerosol back scatter (COBALD): 25 Nos 4. Water vapor: Cryogenic Frostpoint Hygrometer) (CHF) : 25 Nos Tentative Flying strategy: can be discussed and modified. Coordinated with Aircraft for comparison when aircraft measurements taken over Northern India 3 balloonsonde flights. Balloon sonde flights at Nainital- Night time 15 Balloon sonde flights at Nainital- day time 5 Balloon sonde flights at Nagpur- Night time - 5 Balloon sonde flights at Nagpur- day time - 5 Indo-German Project: Influence of Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) on the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS): Feedback on monsoon circulation Geophysica Geophysica Aircraft Payload Gas phase: H2O, CO, O3, NO, NOy, CH4, SF6, Clo, Bro, SO4, H2SO4, CO2 etc Particles: Cloud image probe, particle back scatter, size distribution, condensation nuclei etc. Temperature, pressure, winds etc. July August 2016, No of Days: 25, Flight Hours: ~60 Probing into convective zones cross the tropopause. Base camp at Nagpur Thank You! Increased water vapour / decreased ozone in the anticyclone: Linkages with ASM Weakening of ASM Lower and warmer tropopause Weakening of meridional flow related to ASM circulation between 150 and 100hPa Velocity changes within the ASM anticyclone Increase in H2O/ ozone within the anticyclone Changes Temperature and Radiation Circulation changes related with ASM Anthropogenic forcing Trajectory Analysis: Transport pathways Density field of numbers of all TST trajectories in 1x1 grid, during June-July % from the region between tropical Western Pacific region and South China Seas (WP) % from Bay of Bengal and South Asian subcontinent (BOB) % from the South Slope of the Himalayas. Chen et al., ACP, 2012
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