CCAFS WEST AFRICA REGIONAL SCENARIOS FOR FOOD SECURITY, ENVIRONMENTS AND LIVELIHOODS - PDF

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CCAFS WEST AFRICA REGIONAL SCENARIOS FOR FOOD SECURITY, ENVIRONMENTS AND LIVELIHOODS 2 nd 4 th November 2011 Dakar, SENEGAL 1 CONTENTS 1. Overview 1.1 CCAFS context and scenarios strategy 1.2 CCAF scenarios
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CCAFS WEST AFRICA REGIONAL SCENARIOS FOR FOOD SECURITY, ENVIRONMENTS AND LIVELIHOODS 2 nd 4 th November 2011 Dakar, SENEGAL 1 CONTENTS 1. Overview 1.1 CCAFS context and scenarios strategy 1.2 CCAF scenarios objectives 1.3 Why scenarios? 1.4 CCAFS regional scenarios process 2. Workshop day 1: uncertainties, headlines 2.1 Official opening 2.2 Introduction and background 2.3 Introduction of participants and expectations 2.4 CCAFS priority themes, previous steps, examples 2.5 Workshop outline 2.6 Revision of key drivers 2.7 Scenario groups headlines exercise 3. Workshop day 2: structuring the scenarios 3.1 Scenario time lines 3.2 Time lines results of scenario groups 3.3 System maps for each scenario 3.4 System maps scenario groups 4. Workshop day 3: surprises, outcomes of interest and way forward 4.1 Comments on system maps in plenary session 4.2 Surprises exercise 4.3 Surprises per scenario group 4.4 Outcomes of interest and indicators 4.5 Collecting contacts for scenarios communication 5. Conclusions and next steps in the CCAFS scenarios process for West Africa ANNEX 1 List of participants ANNEX 2 Scenario breakout groups ANNEX 3 Comments on objectives linked to outcomes ANNEX 4 Statement by Ernest Aubee, Programme officer for Agriculture, ECOWAS commission ANNEX 5 Welcome by CORAF/WECARD ANNEX 6 Recommendations for workshop reporting ANNEX 7 Key words and translations ANNEX 8 Programme 2 1. Overview - CCAFS West Africa scenarios workshop 2, 2-4 Sept, hôtel Pullman Teranga, Dakar From 2 to 4 November 2011 the second CCAFS scenarios development workshop was held at the hôtel Pullman Teranga in Dakar. The workshop focused on developing plausible alternate narratives of the future of West Africa in terms of socio-economic and political change and the effects of these futures on food security, environments and livelihoods. Organized by CCAFS and hosted by CORAF, around 40 participants from CCAFS countries in West Africa - Ghana, Sénégal, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger- actively participated in the workshop. The Gambia was also represented on behalf of regional farmers organization ROPPA. ECOWAS was represented through the principal programme officer for the Agriculture Productivity Programme. Other regional institutions included the FARA programme from Ghana, ACMAD in Niger and ICRISAT in Mali. Participants came from policy and government, research, NGOs and CSOs, media and the private sector. These participants were trained in a wide range of disciplines connected to socio-economic and political change, food systems, environments and livelihoods. The CCAFS team facilitators of workshop came from the Environmental Change Institute of the University of Oxford, ILRI and ICRAF in Nairobi and ICRISAT in Bamako. The workshop was highly successful and an ambitious set of objectives was achieved due to the great, diverse, driven and skilled group of participants attending the workshop. This report provides a first overview of the content generated within the workshop, encompassed by presentations, discussions in plenary and in breakout groups per day. First, the next section introduces CCAFS and the CCAFS scenarios process. 1.1 CCAFS context and scenarios strategy CCAFS objectives CCAFS: Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) is a major research partnership between the CGIAR and the global environmental change community (formerly ESSP). Its objectives are: 1. close critical gaps in the knowledge of how to enhance and manage the trade-offs between food security, livelihood and environmental goals in the face of a changing climate; 2. develop and evaluate options for adapting to a changing climate to inform agricultural development, food security policy and donor investment strategies; 3. enable and assist farmers, policymakers, researchers and donors to continually monitor, assess and adjust their actions in response to observed and anticipated changes in climate. 3 Its focus is on three initial regions, namely East Africa, West Africa and the Indo-Gangetic Plains. See figure 1 for a visual representation of the CCAFS framework. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Variability and Change Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for: 1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change 2. Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk 3. Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation Improved Environmental Health Improved Rural Livelihoods Improved Food Security 4. Integration for Decision Making Linking Knowledge with Action Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems Figure 1. The CCAFS framework. 1.2 CCAFS scenarios objectives Within the CCAFS programme, participatory scenarios are being developed and used for each region, as part of the themes Linking knowledge with action and data and tools. The objectives of the scenarios activity are: 1. to evaluate key uncertainties for regional food security, environment and livelihoods under conditions of global environmental and socio-economic change as seen from a range of societal perspectives; 2. to develop regional capacity for governance and decision-making in the face of uncertainty. In terms of these objectives, the development and use of the socio-economic scenarios functions as a platform for the exchange and application of knowledge and experience between (CCAFS) researchers and policy makers, private sectors, NGOs and other societal actors. Because scenarios allow for the capturing of uncertainties and systems complexity in a coherent and plausible yet surprising and challenging fashion, scenarios are also a tool for generating shared engagement. 4 1.3 Why scenarios? The future of interacting food systems, environments and livelihoods is highly complex and uncertain, there are many different stakes at play and conditions change quickly. In this context, predictions are not viable. However, we still need to face this complexity and uncertainty without being pacified scenarios are a communal, creative response to this challenge that draws on sharing of experiences and new insights between participants from across sectors and disciplines. Scenarios focus on capturing key future uncertainties in alternate, plausible what-if stories about the future, told through narratives, numbers, images and other formats. It should be emphasized that scenarios are not predictions, but instead explore multiple plausible futures without making a judgment about which future is more likely. Scenarios are instead tools to re-think and re-organize the presence under considerations of future uncertainty : Scenarios help consider future uncertainties without getting lost in the multitude of possibilities Scenarios present concrete stories that are able to bring together very different perspectives and types of information Scenarios bring the future to life and make it imaginable Scenarios help stretch preconceptions Scenarios help think consistently about the future 1.4 CCAFS regional scenarios process The CCAFS regional scenarios process follows several basic steps see figure 2. These steps reflect the need for a distinction between exploratory socio-economic scenarios (focusing on what can happen) and normative scenarios/visions (focusing on what should happen) and the value that both exploratory scenarios and visions have to offer if used together. These steps are also based on the notion that the relevance of scenarios should be tested and improved by actually using them. 5 Scenarios: what can happen Visioning: what should happen Uncertain future Create shared vision for regional Future (3) Different perspectives: different types of knowledge, experience Scenarios capture alternative Futures (1) Improve scenarios usefulness through quantification and media (2) Different perspectives: different needs, aspirations Use Feasible scenarios to vision, explore robust pathways to policies and vision under strategies (4) uncertainty (4) Improve scenarios based on use (5) Dissemination of scenarios, visions, strategies to key users (6) Figure 2. CCAFS scenarios strategy. 1. Bring together stakeholders representing a wide range of regional perspectives, types of knowledge and experience to develop exploratory scenarios of the future. 2. Once basic scenario narratives have been created, the CCAFS regional scenarios process focuses on improving the usefulness of the scenarios: Increase consistency, credibility and relevance of the scenarios by creating relevant quantitative information through modelling and other quantification processes. This quantification work can produce counter-intuitive consequences of the scenarios that would require reconsideration of the narratives and lead to improved scenarios. Integrate quantitative and qualitative output. Increase the visibility and usage of scenarios as a decision making tool among key audiences through collaboration with media, using news items, fictional narratives, images, radio, video, theatre, interactive visualization. 3. Bring together stakeholders representing different regional needs, agendas and aspirations to create shared visions for the region s future. Visioning is engaging and goal-oriented and very suitable for work with policy makers and private sector actors. 6 4. Use the scenarios to explore how these visions could be realized in each of the alternative futures, what the major obstacles are and what policies and strategies would be effective across the scenarios. Integrating the testing of visions, policy choices and strategies within the scenarios process allows us to ensure the scenarios are used, and to test their usefulness. 5. Improve the scenarios based on their use and experience in the visioning/strategy work. 6. Disseminate the regional scenarios, vision, policy and strategy outcomes further to key audiences. We are employing media experts and dedicated regional networking consultants for this purpose. 7. Developing local and global scenarios to make cross-level linkages. In another CCAFS region, East Africa, the scenarios development process was started first and is now nearly complete. In this region, CCAFS is organizing a wide range of different uses for the scenarios with key regional actors such as strategic visioning workshops with the East African Community and USAID and the CCAFS Regional Learning Platform, but also radio programs, tv items, newspaper articles and an interactive web tool to experiment with the key insights from the scenarios. Furthermore, links to local projects are made both within and outside CCAFS, using the scenarios to provide different socio-economic and policy conditions to experiment with the viability of different local strategies and technologies in terms of food security, environments and livelihoods. We are also planning to have the East African and later on West African scenarios inform the new IPCC socio-economic development pathways. For the CCAFS West Africa region, we are planning a similarly broad and diverse use of the scenarios that involves key regional actors and ensures that the scenarios are used to their maximum potential for the facilitation of uncertainty-conscious regional governance. 2.Workshop day Official opening Dr. Mbène Dème Faye welcomed the participants on behalf of the Executive director of CORAF. After her, Mr Ernest Aubee made an introductory speech on behalf of ECOWAS Commission. Both speeches are annexed to this report. After welcome remarks, CCAFS scenarios team leader John Ingram (ECI Oxford) introduced the workshop, beginning with an introduction of the CCAFS team and particularly of the CCAFS regional leader, Dr. Robert Zougmore. 2.2 Introduction and background Next, the objectives of the workshop and the overall programme were communicated by CCAFS scenarios officer, Dr. Joost Vervoort. 7 Introducing the CCAFS scenarios process, the facilitator highlighted the fact that exploratory scenarios are different from visions in that they do not focus on what the participants want to happen or want to avoid, but instead focus on what could happen irrespective of what is desired. 2.3 Introduction of participants and expressions of expectations Participants then got the opportunity to introduce themselves and discuss their expectations for the workshop. It was made clear that participants came from very different backgrounds in terms of disciplines, sectors and countries of origin, and that together they brought great expertise. The following are some expectations that were uttered: For the scenarios to be completed and more usable by researchers Joint actions to come out of the work together Find effective food security responses Link concerns about environments and livelihoods to food security work Learn about the scenarios development process The hope that re results of the process will not be buried like the 2025 prospective vision elaborated by regional governments For CCAFS to ensure the use of the scenarios once completed Provide better regional scenarios as context for research Scenarios as a bridge between community needs and research Develop scenario development skills Share and link experience between scenario developers and other researchers 2.4 CCAFS program priority themes, previous steps in the process and examples John Ingram elaborated on CCAFS, its objectives (see previous section) and its priority themes (see figure 1). The role of the scenarios within these objectives was further discussed. Then, Robert Zougmore gave a presentation from his perspective as CCAFS regional leader on West Africa in terms of food security, environments and livelihoods and the CCAFS activities on these themes. Robert gave an overview of his region, discussing such issues as the degradation of 25% of lands creating poverty for millions of people, most of whom are smallholder farmers. CCAFS aims to help regions respond to such issues and transition to sustainable and equitable food security, environmental management and livelihoods, taking environmental changes such as climate change as a main focus. This ambition entails many challenges but also opportunities. Current policies are ineffective. Scenarios can be a way to consider the future in order to re-organize the present in terms of policies across sectors. Dr. Polly Ericksen from ILRI, Nairobi described the first steps of the scenarios development process taken for CCAFS West Africa. In the previous workshop, key uncertainties were discussed and some first ideas for scenario storylines were developed. These ideas would form the basis for the work in the workshop discussed in this report, though this content was open for revision. This revised content will be part of the report in subsequent sections. 8 The CCAFS East Africa scenarios process was introduced by Joost Vervoort as an example of where the process can lead, and examples discussed under step 7 in the process description were used to give participants a practical idea of the many potential uses of the CCAFS scenarios. 2.5 Workshop outline Figure 3 shows the different steps undertaken in the workshop. The first draft results of these steps will be presented in the subsequent sections of this document. Day 1 Fleshing out the scenarios Introductions Revisiting regional uncertainties and challenges Scenario stories: headlines method, perspectives Day 2 Structuring the scenarios Scenario time lines System maps Day 3 Fleshing out the scenarios; outcomes Surprises Revisiting storylines Outcomes, indicators Figure 3. Steps in the workshop 2.6 Revision of key drivers We revisited the key drivers identified in the previous workshop factors where the direction of change is highly relevant for future food security, environments and livelihoods in West Africa up to Of these, the drivers that were seen as both highly relevant and highly uncertain were used as key uncertainties. These are used to determine the differences between the scenarios. Population growth and climate change had been identified in the previous workshop as highly relevant but not as highly uncertain since population growth can indeed be predicted from current births and climate change forecasts only start to differ widely after These drivers will therefore be assumed to be the same over all scenarios. The key uncertainties chosen by the participants of the previous workshop were state actors leading versus private sector leading and focus on short-term agricultural production versus long term agricultural, environmental and social sustainability. In discussing the revision of these key uncertainties, a long, lively and fruitful discussion ensued. 9 Dominant Force Non-state Actors State Actors The group agreed on maintaining the basic uncertainties but rephrasing them to make them more useful and flexible. See figure 4 for these revised phrasings. The absence of regional integration in the key uncertainties was discussed, and it was agreed that integration and interactions between regional and national policies should be part of all the narratives. Policy driver Short-term priorities Long-term priorities Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 Scenario 3 Figure 4. Key uncertainties revised. The vertical axis was changed to state actors dominant force versus non-state actors dominant force to give this axis more general applicability many non-state actors fall outside the private sector label. Changing leading to dominant force provides some more room in each scenario for the opposite group of actors to still play a role in the scenario. The change of the horizontal axis of uncertainty to short-term priorities versus long-term priorities was initially a point for long discussion. What this axis means is that the dominant actors (whether mostly state or non-state actors) maintain short-term or long-term priorities. This applies throughout the time line in 2028, actors will either have short-term priorities reaching to 2030 or focus on priorities that reach to 2.7 Scenario groups headlines exercise Following the revision of the key uncertainties, the participants were divided into four groups, one for each scenario resulting from a combination of key uncertainties. These groups mixed disciplines, sectors and countries of origin. We used a headlines exercise: each member of the group was asked to describe developments or events that could take place in the given scenario. Participants were asked to frame these items as if they were writing news headlines. This way, the process focused on concrete, tangible events and developments which help make the scenario more real and defined. z In this phase, we were not yet looking to create a coherent storyline, but to capture as many ideas about the scenario as possible. Therefore, participants were asked to put ideas on postits individually without discussing them for the first 20 minutes. After this first round, discussions followed and out of these interactions more post-its were added. The product was an unstructured but rich assemblage of possible story elements for each scenario. Headlines exercise results per scenario group SCENARIO 1: short-term priorities with state actors as the dominant force. Headline # 1: GMOs are legal in most West African countries (2021) States have taken a pro-active, interventionist stance to resolve the food security problem using easiest mechanisms available: global biotechnology and local legislative power. Headline # 2: Rice imports from Asia hit an all-time high (anytime) Food security targets require immediate procurement of staples with rice being cheaper on international markets, and local trade operators being a quick and dirty mechanism to meet the growing demand, particularly from growing urban areas. Headline # 3: Dry land forests, a thing of the past (2030) Rapid growth in food and fuel demand driven by population increase, particularly urban, call for rapid cropland expansion and fuel wood exploi
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