Exploring Food Price Scenarios Towards 2030 With a Global Multi-Region Model | Rice | Agriculture

Please download to get full document.

View again

of 44
All materials on our website are shared by users. If you have any questions about copyright issues, please report us to resolve them. We are always happy to assist you.
Information Report
Category:

Others

Published:

Views: 5 | Pages: 44

Extension: PDF | Download: 0

Share
Related documents
Description
This report is a contribution to the Oxfam campaign ‘Grow: Food.Life.Planet’. It explores a range of scenarios for food price increases to 2030 through the GLOBE model. Over and above providing a global perspective, the research provides disaggregated results for a range of countries and country groups. The scenarios include: Business-as-usual scenarios for 2020 and 2030 under current growth and productivity projections. The focus is on predicted price increases for the major traded agricultural food commodities (rice, wheat and maize) in sub-Saharan Africa (disaggregated by region), Central America, North Africa, and other low-income countries and regions
Transcript
  Oxfam Research Reports Exploring Food Price Scenarios Towards 2030 with a Global Multi Region Model Dirk Willenbockel Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex, UK 1 June 2011 www.oxfam.org/grow    ‘Exploring Food Price Scenarios Towards 2030 with a Global Multi-Region Model’ Oxfam Research Report, June 2011 2 1 BACKGROUND AND TERMS OF REFERENCE This report is a contribution to the Oxfam report: ‘Growing a Better Future’. It explores a range of scenarios for food price increases to 2030 through the GLOBE model. Over and above providing a global perspective, the research provides disaggregated results for a range of countries and country groups identified by Oxfam. The scenarios of interest to Oxfam include   Business-as-usual scenarios for 2020 and 2030 under current growth and productivity projections. The focus is on predicted price increases for the major traded agricultural food commodities (rice, wheat and maize) in sub-Saharan Africa (disaggregated by region), Central America, North  Africa, and other low-income countries and regions selected by Oxfam; on the domestic supply responses in these regions; on international trade in agricultural commodities; and on food consumption per capita.   Scenarios of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity by crop and its consequences for food production and prices in sub-Saharan  African regions and other developing countries;   Alternative scenarios in which national agricultural productivity rises above predicted trend levels;   For regions in sub-Saharan Africa, a scenario in which anticipated climate change impacts on yields are negated or reduced through adaptation and wider measures. In addition, looking at the baseline net trade positions by food commodity and shares of imports in domestic absorption using a finer country disaggregation level, the Appendix analyzes developing countries’ present exposure to world crop price surges using the full geographical disaggregation of the GTAP 7.1 database. This report is intended to contribute to the case for more effective international responses to the food security threats posed by rising food prices.    ‘Exploring Food Price Scenarios Towards 2030 with a Global Multi-Region Model’ Oxfam Research Report, June 2011 3 2 THE MODEL AND DATABASE The GLOBE model is in the tradition of multi-country, trade-focused, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models developed to analyse the impact of global trade negotiations and regional trade agreements. 1  The dynamized version of GLOBE used in the present study is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS) at the University of Sussex. The model consists of a set of individual country or region models that provide complete coverage of the global economy and are linked through international trade in a multi-region model system. It solves the within- country models and between- country trade relationships simultaneously. The country models simulate the operation of factor and commodity markets, solving for wages, land rent, profits, and commodity prices that achieve supply–demand balance in all markets. Each country engages in international trade, supplying exports and demanding imports. The model determines world prices that achieve supply–demand balance in all global commodity markets, simulating the operation of world markets. Multi-country CGE models like GLOBE represent the whole economy including the agricultural sector. Their strength is that they include the value chain from crops, processing and distribution, and finally to demand for food by households. They also incorporate links between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, and the links between production, factor payments, and household income. Multi-country CGE models are well suited to analysis of policies or scenarios that will change the volume and structure of production, demand, and international trade, and the allocation of factors of production throughout the economy. The model is initially calibrated to the GTAP 7.1 database (the most recent update of Narayanan and Walmsley, eds., 2008) that combines detailed bilateral trade, and protection data reflecting economic linkages among regions with individual country input–output data (which account for intersectoral linkages within regions) for the benchmark year 2004. For the present study, we use a 19-region, 12-sector/commodity group aggregation of the GTAP database. Table 1 shows the regional disaggregation of the model. The model distinguishes eight food commodity groups: Wheat, Maize/Other Coarse Grains (Maize), Paddy rice (PadRice), Processed rice (PrcRice), Other crops (OCrops), Livestock products, Processed meat products (MeatPrd) and Other processed food (OPrcFood)), as well as four non-food sectors: Extraction, Non-food Manufacturing, Trade and Transport Services, Other Services. Figure 1 and Tables 2 and 3 show selected relevant initial 2004 baseline share figures by region, including the share of food in total household expenditure, the shares of the various food commodities in total household food expenditure, and the share of imports in domestic (intermediate and final) demand for commodities. 1  McDonald et a l. (2007)    ‘Exploring Food Price Scenarios Towards 2030 with a Global Multi-Region Model’ Oxfam Research Report, June 2011 4 Table 1: Geographical aggregation of the model Code Region Notes Europe Europe including Ukraine, Belarus Russia Russian Federation NAmerica North America USA, Canada Oceania Oceania  Australia, New Zealand, rest of Oceania HIAsia High-Income Asia Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan China China OEAsia Other East + South-East Asia Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Rest of East + South East Asia India India OSAsia Other South Asia Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, rest of South Asia CAsia Central Asia + Middle-East Kazakhstan, Kyrgyztan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, rest of FSU, Turkey, Iran, rest of western Asia  Andean Andean South America Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru Brazil Brazil OSAmerica Other South America  Argentina, Chile, Venezuela, Uruguay, Paraguay, rest of South America CAmerica Central America + Caribbean Costa Rica, Guatemala, Nicaragua, rest of Central  America, Caribbean, Mexico NAfrica North Africa Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, rest of North Africa WAfrica West Africa Nigeria, Senegal, rest of western Africa CAfrica Central Africa Cameroon, CAR, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Angola, DR Congo EAfrica East Africa Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, rest of eastern Africa SSEAfrica South + South-East Africa South Africa, Botswana, rest of SACU, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe
Recommended
View more...
We Need Your Support
Thank you for visiting our website and your interest in our free products and services. We are nonprofit website to share and download documents. To the running of this website, we need your help to support us.

Thanks to everyone for your continued support.

No, Thanks