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PROCTER & GAMBLE CO (-N) Last Close (USD) Avg Daily Vol 9.7M 52-Week High Trailing PE 16.1 Annual Div 2.68 ROE 27.2% LTG Forecast 7.5% 1-Mo 5.1% February 09, 2017 NEW YORK Exchange Market Cap
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PROCTER & GAMBLE CO (-N) Last Close (USD) Avg Daily Vol 9.7M 52-Week High Trailing PE 16.1 Annual Div 2.68 ROE 27.2% LTG Forecast 7.5% 1-Mo 5.1% February 09, 2017 NEW YORK Exchange Market Cap 223.5B 52-Week Low Forward PE 22.3 Dividend Yield 3.0% Annual Rev 65.2B Inst Own 72.3% 3-Mo 3.2% AVERAGE SCORE NEUTRAL OUTLOOK: 's current score is relatively in-line with the market. HIGHLIGHTS Average Score Trend (4-Week Moving Avg) FEB-2014 FEB-2015 FEB- FEB The score for Procter & Gamble Co last changed from 5 to 6 on 01/22/17. - The recent change in the Average Score was primarily due to an improvement in the Price Momentum and Relative Valuation component scores. Score Averages Personal Goods & Services Group: 5.1 Mega Market Cap: 7.2 Personal Goods & Services Sector: 5.1 S&P 500 Index: 6.6 Peers -6M -3M -1M -1W Current 1Y Trend THOMSON REUTERS I/B/E/S MEAN Buy 21 Analysts Mean recommendation from all analysts covering the company on a standardized 5-point scale. Sell Reduce Hold Buy Strong Buy PRICE AND VOLUME CHARTS 1-Year : 7.3% 5-Year : 38.5% BUSINESS SUMMARY The Procter & Gamble Company is focused on providing branded consumer packaged goods to the consumers across the world. The Company operates through five segments: Beauty; Grooming; Health Care; Fabric & Home Care, and Baby, Feminine & Family Care. The Company sells its products in approximately 180 countries and territories primarily through mass merchandisers, grocery stores, membership club stores, drug stores, department stores, distributors, baby stores, specialty beauty stores, e-commerce, high-frequency stores and pharmacies. The Company owns and operates approximately 20 manufacturing sites located in over 20 states in the United States. In addition, it owns and operates over 100 manufacturing sites in approximately 40 countries. It offers products under the brands, such as Olay, Old Spice, Safeguard, Head & Shoulders, Pantene, Rejoice, Mach3, Prestobarba, Venus, Cascade, Dawn, Febreze, Mr. Clean, Bounty and Charmin. Page 1 of 12 PROCTER & GAMBLE CO (-N) INDICATOR COMPONENTS The AVERAGE SCORE combines the quantitative analysis of six widely-used investment decision making tools: Earnings, Fundamental, Relative Valuation, Risk, Price Momentum and Insider Trading. A simple average of the underlying component ratings is normally distributed to rank stocks on a 1-10 scale (10 being awarded to the most favorable). These factors may be evaluated differently using alternative methodologies and the importance of individual factors varies across industries, market capitalization and investment styles. Additional criteria should always be used to evaluate a stock. Earnings Fundamental Relative Valuation Risk Price Momentum Insider Trading OPTIMIZED SCORE PEER ANALYSIS Historically, companies with an optimized score of 1 have tended to significantly underperform the market over the following 12-month period. As an alternative approach to equally weighting each of the six factors, independent research firm, Verus Analytics, conducted a backtest to empirically determine the optimal factor blend. Results and weighting vary across four different market capitalization categories. For large cap stocks, price momentum and insider trading historically provided the most explanatory power among the six factors and are weighted heavily in the current optimized score. Among the small cap universe, the earnings and fundamental factors joined with insider trading and price momentum to explain returns. Currency in USD Average Score Ticker Price (02/09/17) PRICE MOMENTUM VALUATION FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSTS 1-Mo 3-Mo 1-Yr Market Cap Trailing PE Forward PE Dividend Yield Net Margin LTG I/B/E/S Forecast Mean # of Analysts % 3.2% 7.3% 223.5B % 23.4% 7.5% Buy % -5.4% 1.1% 58.6B % 16.1% 8.7% Hold % 2.8% -8.6% 18.5B % 9.5% 9.2% Buy % 6.9% 34.2% 5.3B % -- Buy % 1.6% 3.3% 4.4B % 8.9% Hold 14 6 NUS % -2.0% 60.9% 2.8B % 6.3% 7.5% Buy 7 5 AVP % -1.4% 68.2% 2.5B % -8.5% 301.0% Hold 12 6 MATW % 4.1% 41.5% 2.2B % 4.8% 12.5% Hold 4 6 REV % 17.5% 18.5% 1.8B % USNA % -6.2% -2.3% 1.5B % 10.0% Buy 3 6 NLS % 6.3% -8.4% 534M % -- Buy Average % 2.5% 19.6% 29.2B % 7.7% 45.7% Buy 11.2 PEER COMPANIES Colgate-Palmolive Co AVP Avon Products Inc Estee Lauder Companies Inc MATW Matthews International Corp Herbalife REV Revlon Inc Edgewell Personal Care Co USNA USANA Health Sciences Inc NUS NU Skin Enterprises Inc NLS Nautilus Inc Page 2 of 12 PROCTER & GAMBLE CO (-N) EARNINGS Currency in USD POSITIVE OUTLOOK: Strong earnings with recent analyst upgrades or a history of surpassing consensus estimates. Earnings Score Trend (4-Week Moving Avg) FEB-2014 FEB-2015 FEB- FEB-2017 EARNINGS INDICATORS Earnings Surprises (33.3% weight) Earnings Score Averages Personal Goods & Services Group: 5.0 Mega Market Cap: 6.5 Personal Goods & Services Sector: 5.0 S&P 500 Index: 6.3 Peers -6M -3M -1M -1W Current 1Y Trend Estimate Revisions (33.3% weight) Recommendation Changes (33.3% weight) HIGHLIGHTS Last 4 Quarters Last 4 Weeks Last 120 Days # Surprises ( 2%) 3 # Up Revisions 6 # Broker Upgrades 3 # Surprises ( -2%) 0 # Down Revisions 10 # Broker Downgrades 4 # In-Line Surprises (within 2%) 1 Avg Up Revisions 28.6% Avg Surprise 4.7% Avg Down Revisions -47.6% - Procter & Gamble Co currently has an Earnings Rating of 8, which is significantly more bullish than the Personal Products industry average of On 01/20/17, the company announced quarterly earnings of 1.08 per share, relatively in-line with the consensus Over the past 4 quarters, the company has reported 3 positive, 0 negative, and 1 inline surprises. The average surprise for this time period has been 4.7%. - 's current quarter consensus estimate has remained relatively unchanged over the past 90 days at Estimates within its industry have moved an average of -2.0% during the same time period. PRICE TARGET The chart indicates where analysts predict the stock price will be within the next 12 months, as compared to the current price HIGH MEAN LOW Current Price Price Target 12-Month Price Target Mean High Low Target vs. Current 2.1% # of Analysts 17 Page 3 of 12 PROCTER & GAMBLE CO (-N) EARNINGS PER SHARE Earnings per share (EPS) is calculated by dividing a company's earnings by the number of shares outstanding. Analysts tend to interpret a pattern of increasing earnings as a sign of strength and flat or falling earnings as a sign of weakness. The charts provide a comparison between a company's actual and estimated EPS, including the high and low forecasts Actuals Estimates Actuals Estimates HIGH MEAN LOW HIGH MEAN LOW Quarterly Mean High Low # of Analysts Annual Mean High Low # of Analysts MEAN ESTIMATE TREND ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS Q Q Y 2017 Y 2018 Price Target Current Days Ago Days Ago % Change (90 Days) -2.1% -3.5% -1.0% -1.6% -3.8% EARNINGS SURPRISES Current Fiscal Year End: Next Expected Report Date: 04/24/17 Comparing a company's actual earnings to the mean expectation of analysts results in a difference referred to as a 'positive' or 'negative' surprise. Research has shown that when a company reports a surprise, it is often followed by more of the same surprise type. Surprise Summary (Last 12 Quarters) Surprise Type Amount Percent Quarters ( 2%) % Quarters ( -2%) 1 8.3% In-Line Quarters (within 2%) % Surprise Type Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S Mean: Buy (21 Analysts) Strong Buy Buy Hold Reduce Sell Announce Date 0 2 Surprise Detail (Last 6 Periods) Period End Date 4 Actual EPS 6 Mean EPS 9 Surprise (%) In-Line 01/20/17 12/31/ % 10/25/16 09/30/ % 08/02/16 06/30/ % 04/26/16 03/31/ % 01/26/16 12/31/ % 10/23/15 09/30/ % ANNUAL REVENUE A pattern of increasing sales in conjunction with a rising EPS may influence a buy recommendation, while flat or falling sales and faltering earnings may explain a sell recommendation. A rising EPS with flat or falling sales may result from increased cost efficiency and margins, rather than market expansion. This chart shows the sales forecast trend of all analysts and the highest and lowest projections for the current and next fiscal year. Actuals Estimates 78B 76.3B 75B 72B 69B 66B HIGH 65.3B MEAN LOW 63B Mean 65.2B 66.7B High 66.1B 68.9B Low 64.7B 65.1B Forecasted Growth -0.2% 2.1% # of Analysts Page 4 of 12 PROCTER & GAMBLE CO (-N) FUNDAMENTAL POSITIVE OUTLOOK: Strong fundamentals such as high profit margins, low debt levels, or growing dividends. Fundamental Score Averages Personal Goods & Services Group: 6.5 Mega Market Cap: 6.7 Personal Goods & Services Sector: 6.5 S&P 500 Index: 6.5 Fundamental Score Trend Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Peers Q1 Q2 Q Q4 Current 3Y Trend FUNDAMENTAL INDICATORS Profitability Debt Earnings Quality Dividend Revenue Growth -2.5% For year over year Gross Margin 51.0% For latest 12 months On Equity 27.2% For interim period Net Margin 23.4% For latest 12 months Current Ratio 0.9 For interim period Debt-to-Capital 24.6% For annual period ending 06- Interest Funding 7.3% For interim period ending 09- Interest Coverage 14.8 For interim period Oper. Cash Yield -0.1% For latest 12 months Accruals -0.3% For latest 12 months Days Sales In Inv For annual period ending 06- Days Sales In Rec For annual period ending 06- Dividend Growth 1.5% For year over year Dividend Payout 48.9% For latest 12 months Dividend Coverage 1.9 For annual period ending 06- Current Div. Yield 3.0% For latest 12 months ending HIGHLIGHTS - The Fundamental Rating for Procter & Gamble Co declined significantly over the last quarter from 10 to 8. The average Fundamental Rating for its Personal Products industry is 6.0 and the S&P 500 index average is The net margin of 23.4% for is the highest within its Personal Products industry. - The company's current ratio has been lower than its industry average for each of the past five years. - The Fundamental Rating for Procter & Gamble Co declined significantly over the last quarter from 10 to 8. The average Fundamental Rating for its Personal Products industry is 6.0 and the S&P 500 index average is The net margin of 23.4% for is the highest within its Personal Products industry. Page 5 of 12 PROCTER & GAMBLE CO (-N) RATIVE VALUATION NEUTRAL OUTLOOK: Multiples relatively in-line with the market. Relative Valuation Score Trend (4-Week Moving Avg) FEB-2014 FEB-2015 FEB- FEB-2017 RATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS Relative Valuation Score Averages Personal Goods & Services Group: 4.5 Mega Market Cap: 5.8 Personal Goods & Services Sector: 4.5 S&P 500 Index: 5.5 Peers -6M -3M -1M -1W Current 1Y Trend Forward PEG (50% weight) Trailing PE Forward PE Forward PEG Yr Average 2.5 Trailing PE Yr Average 22.5 Forward PE Yr Average 19.1 Rel. to 5-Yr Avg. 17% Premium Rel. to 5-Yr Avg. 28% Discount Rel. to 5-Yr Avg. 16% Premium S&P 500 Index 1.6 S&P 500 Index 24.2 S&P 500 Index 17.9 Rel. to S&P % Premium Rel. to S&P % Discount Rel. to S&P % Premium HIGHLIGHTS - Procter & Gamble Co currently has a Relative Valuation Rating of 4 which is significantly below the S&P 500 index average rating of 's Forward PEG of 3.0 represents a 17% Premium to its 5-year average of Procter & Gamble Co currently has a Relative Valuation Rating of 4 which is significantly below the S&P 500 index average rating of 's Forward PEG of 3.0 represents a 17% Premium to its 5-year average of 2.5. Page 6 of 12 PROCTER & GAMBLE CO (-N) PRICE TO SALES The most recent week's close price divided by the revenue per share Yr Average 2012 FORWARD PE 2013 Price to Sales: Year Average: 2.7 S&P 500 Index Average: 1.9 Personal Products Industry Average: The most recent week's close price divided by the sum of the four upcoming quarterly consensus estimates Yr Average Forward PE: Year Average: 19.1 S&P 500 Index Average: 17.9 Personal Products Industry Average: TRAILING PE The most recent week's close price divided by the sum of the four most recently reported quarterly earnings Yr Average 2012 FORWARD PEG 2013 Trailing PE: Year Average: 22.5 S&P 500 Index Average: 24.2 Personal Products Industry Average: The Forward P/E divided by the five-year forecasted growth rate Yr Average Forward PEG: Year Average: 2.5 S&P 500 Index Average: 1.6 Personal Products Industry Average: Page 7 of 12 PROCTER & GAMBLE CO (-N) RISK POSITIVE OUTLOOK: Consistent return patterns (low volatility). Risk Score Trend (4-Week Moving Avg) FEB-2014 FEB-2015 FEB- FEB-2017 Risk Score Averages Personal Goods & Services Group: 5.7 Mega Market Cap: 8.7 Personal Goods & Services Sector: 5.7 S&P 500 Index: 8.1 Peers -6M -3M -1M -1W Current 1Y Trend RISK INDICATORS Magnitude Of s Volatility Beta (1-year) Correlation Daily s (Last 90 Days) Best 3.2% Worst -3.5% Monthly s (Last 60 Months) Best 10.7% Worst -8.8% Standard Deviation Last 90 Days 0.87 Last 60 Months 4.07 Intra-Day Swing (Last 90 Days) Average 1.0% Largest 4.2% Beta vs. S&P Days Only 0.67 Days Only 0.62 Beta vs. Group 0.42 Days Only 0.38 Days Only 0.56 Correlation vs. S&P 500 Last 90 Days 32% Last 60 Months 48% Correlation vs. Group Last 90 Days 29% Last 60 Months 41% HIGHLIGHTS - Procter & Gamble Co currently has a Risk Rating of 10 while the S&P 500 index has an average rating of On days when the market is up, shares tend to lag the S&P 500 index. However, on days when the market is down, the shares generally decrease less than the index. - In the short term, has shown average correlation ( = 0.2 and 0.4) with the S&P 500 index. The stock has, however, shown high correlation ( = 0.4) with the market in the long term. - Over the last 90 days, shares have been less volatile than the overall market, as the stock's daily price has fluctuated less than 98% of S&P 500 index firms. RISK ANALYSIS Peers Best Daily Worst Daily Last 90 Days # Days Up # Days Down Largest Intra-Day Swing Last 60 Months Best Monthly Worst Monthly 3.2% -3.5% % 10.7% -8.8% 1.9% -5.2% % 9.2% -8.6% 2.6% -2.7% % 15.2% -17.1% 5.8% -2.6% % 10.9% -12.7% 4.2% -3.6% % 45.1% -36.3% S&P % -0.8% % 8.3% -6.3% Page 8 of 12 PROCTER & GAMBLE CO (-N) PRICE MOMENTUM Currency in USD NEUTRAL OUTLOOK: Performance relatively in-line with the market. Price Momentum Score Trend (4-Week Moving Avg) FEB-2014 FEB-2015 FEB- FEB-2017 PRICE MOMENTUM INDICATORS Relative Strength (70% weight) Price Momentum Score Averages Personal Goods & Services Group: 4.6 Mega Market Cap: 6.2 Personal Goods & Services Sector: 4.6 S&P 500 Index: 5.9 Peers -6M -3M -1M -1W Current 1Y Trend Seasonality (30% weight) Relative Strength Indicator (Scale from 1 to 100) Industry Avg Last 1 Month Last 3 Months Last 6 Months PRICE PERFORMANCE Daily close prices are used to calculate the performance of the stock as compared to a relevant index over five time periods. 1-Week 1% 1.5% DJIA Average Monthly (Last 10 Years) FEB MAR APR Company Avg -0.4% 0.3% -0.2% Industry Avg 1.2% 2.2% 3.4% Industry Rank 44 of of of 118 DJIA Close Price (02/09/17) , Week High , Week Low ,660 1-Month 3-Month YTD 5.1% 1.4% 3.2% 5.5% 2.1% 8.5% - On 02/09/17, closed at 88.67, 1.8% below its 52-week high and 12.1% above its 52-week low. - shares are currently trading 4.0% above their 50-day moving average of 85.25, and 4.0% above their 200-day moving average of The DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL index is currently trading at its 52-week high of Year 7.3% 26% Page 9 of 12 PROCTER & GAMBLE CO (-N) INSIDER TRADING Currency in USD NEGATIVE OUTLOOK: Recent or longer-term trend of selling by company insiders. Insider Trading Score Trend (4-Week Moving Avg) FEB-2014 FEB-2015 FEB- FEB-2017 INSIDER TRADING INDICATORS Short-Term Insider (70% weight) Insider Trading Score Averages Personal Goods & Services Group: 4.8 Mega Market Cap: 3.7 Personal Goods & Services Sector: 4.8 S&P 500 Index: 4.0 Peers -6M -3M -1M -1W Current 1Y Trend Long-Term Insider (30% weight) Most Recent Buys and Sells (Last 90 Days) Insider Name Role Tran Date Tran Type Shares Posada, Juan Fernando O 01/30/17-02/02/17 S 12,000 Tastad, Carolyn M. O 02/02/17 S 30,219 Biegger, Mark F. O 02/01/17 S 31,116 HIGHLIGHTS - Procter & Gamble Co currently has an Insider Trading Rating of 1, which is significantly more bearish than both the Personal Products industry average of 4.75 and the Personal Goods & Services industry group average of MARC S PRITCHARD, one of the most predictive sellers at, recently sold 47,252 shares. Historically, shares have declined an average of -1.36% in the six months following 12 prior sell decisions. - Since the beginning of the current quarter, sales by Procter & Gamble Co executives have totaled $20,557,206. Over the past five years, the average sell total for Q1 has been $27,293,834. TOP INSTITUTIONAL HOLDERS Institution Name Inst. Type % O/S Shares Held Reported Date The Vanguard Group Inc Inv Mgmt 6.8% 173M 09/30/16 State Street Global Inv Mgmt 4.6% 117M 09/30/16 BlackRock Institutional Inv Mgmt 4.3% 109M 09/30/16 Millennium Management Inv Mgmt 2.8% 72.6M 09/30/16 Capital World Investors Inv Mgmt 2.1% 54.5M 09/30/16 Page 10 of 12 Updated daily as of 02/09/17 MONTHLY BUYS AND SLS BUYS Insider Summary (Last 6 Months) Total Shares Acquired 1,837,602 Total Shares Disposed 2,115,838 Net Shares -278,236 Sector Average -154,381 $ Market Value (Millions) SLS M A M J J A S O N D J F TOP EXECUTIVE HOLDERS Insider Name Role Excludes derivative and option exercises Direct Reported Shares Value Date Lafley, Alan G. OD 2.21M 193M 05/05/16 Henretta, Deborah A O 0.52M 45.2M 05/29/15 Moeller, Jon R CFO 0.42M 36.9M 08/17/16 Pritchard, Marc S O 0.41M 35.6M 08/17/16 Taylor, David S CEO 0.36M 31.1M 09/19/16 Updated monthly as of 01/22/17 PROCTER & GAMBLE CO (-N) TIPS The Thomson Reuters Stock Report is a comprehensive, company-specific analysis that includes a proprietary Stock Rating along with underlying component indicators and supportive data elements. The report is updated daily, although some of the data elements and the ratings are updated weekly. Average Score The Average Score combines a quantitative analysis of six widely-used investment decision making tools - Earnings, Fundamental, Relative Valuation, Risk, Price Momentum, and Insider Trading. First, a simple average of the six underlying component ratings is calculated. Then, a normal distribution is used to rank each stock across the market on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being most favorable. A score of 8 to 10 is considered positive, 4 to 7 is neutral, and 1 to 3 is negative. These six factors may be evaluated differently using alternative methodologies, and the importance of individual factors varies across groups, market capitalization and investment styles. Additional criteria should always be used to evaluate a stock. A company must have sufficient data available for at least four of the six component indicators in order to receive an overall Average Score. Approximately 85% of the stocks within the coverage universe meet the criteria to generate a score. Optimized Score As an alternative to the average score, the Stock Report includes an Optimized Score generated by independent research firm, Verus Analytics. It uses the same six component ratings, but rather than equally weighting each of the factors, the weighting varies by market capitalization of the underlying security based on backtesting research. These scores are also updated weekly and distributed normally on a 1 to 10 scale, with 10 being best. The variable size is assigned monthly by ranking the market capitalization and assigning the appropriate category as follows: Large - Top 5.55% Mid - Next 13.87% Small - Next 34.68% Micro - Remaining 45.9% Indicator Components The six indicators that comprise the stock rating are displayed. Like the stock rating, the component rating scale is 1 to 10, with 10 being best. A company will receive an NR for No Rating if the required data elements or criteria are not met. A detailed section for each component is included in the report. Indicator Trends Within each component section, historical score trends are displayed, typically using a 4-week moving average over a timeframe of the past three years. The dotted orange line indicates the av
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