Russia: consumer trends and market opportunities. Prognosfruit 2012, Toulouse, France - PDF

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+ Russia: consumer trends and market opportunities Prognosfruit 2012, Toulouse, France + Russia: economic outline GDP reached 1680 bnusd in with 4.3% yoy growth , Inflation
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+ Russia: consumer trends and market opportunities Prognosfruit 2012, Toulouse, France + Russia: economic outline GDP reached 1680 bnusd in with 4.3% yoy growth , Inflation targets are set at the level of 5.5-6% ,3 9 8, Russia has 12 cities inhabiting 1 mln people and more ,5 6,1 6,9 8 6 Western Russia concentrates 80% of country population (~114 mln) , City population vs. rural 73/27% Market is limited and growth rates are lower than expectations Population CPI + Fresh fruit import to Russia, thousand tons 2010 to 2011: +10% growth full year fruit import 1H fruit import + Fresh fruit import to Russia, thousand tons Data per variety distribution citrus apples pears bananas other + Fresh fruit import to Russia General trends and 3-5 year forecast Recession in 2008 influenced the market with 1 year lag and led to 5% import drop in terms of volume after 3 years of constant growth. In 2012 the pattern of market behavior is similar In 2010 fruit market has recovered in terms of volume, not value Full year (2011) volume growth +10%. Focus on conventional fruits, exotics have stayed at stable level Per capita consumption ~56 kg/year, 75% (42 kg) imports, 26% domestic produce. Organic growth should be not more than 3-5% yoy (+3 kg p/a) 2015: thousand tones of imported fresh fruit Russia is one of the most import-dependent countries in the fresh fruit sector + Fresh fruit per capita consumption by origin: share of imported fruits is stable at 70-75% of total consumption 60,0 51,2 52,7 53,5 55,8 50,0 43,2 46,8 40,0 38,8 37,6 30,0 20,0 10,0 0, import consumption local consumption + Consumer preferences Are not changing significantly over last 5 years grapes; 7% other; 17% citrus; 27% Recession had increased the share of conventional fruit citrus, bananas, apples Only apples and pears may be partially replaced by domestically grown varieties Exotic fruits refer to higher culture of consumption banana; 20% pears; 7% apples; 22% Apples and pears are subject to protective measures implied by customs authorities Accession to WTO should decrease customs duties (currently: 0.1E/kilo for apples; 10% for pears) + Retail trends + Retailers in Russia Have doubled the amount of modern stores within last 5 years Modern retail takes up to 37% of all food retail formats in Russia. By 2020 this share should increase up to 65-70%. Modern retail turnover in 2011 reached $63 bn. This is ~22% of food retail turnover. Growth potential is located in regions, concentration of retailers would continue to increase. Less organic growth, more M&A s. Yoyrevenue growth rate 28.5%; 5 years growth forecast: 20% p.a. Lack of affordable and quality real estate for development in big cities. Launching own import programs, contracting significant volume of the fruit and veg Dictate prices to importers on the basis of shelf price + Apple import to Russia by country 14% Apple import to Russia 2011: thousand tons 4% 4% 2% 4% 25% Leaders are changing: China gives ground to Poland, Serbia and Moldova (50%) EU-15 occupies 19.2% of the Russian fresh apple market 5% 6% 16% Red varieties dominate on Russian market 8% 12% Poland Moldova China Serbia Italy Argentina Chile France Belgium Germany Others Increasing quality of Polish apples, both from orchards and CA chambers One country one variety trend + Pear import to Russia by country 13% Pear import to Russia 2011: 425 thousand tons 5% 5% 2% 3% 14% 26% 32% European exporters remain on leading positions EU-15 takes 55% Conference is the most popular pear all through the season Williams/Packham sduring summer time Belgium Argentina Netherlands China Poland Africa France Others Demand on variety pears highly depends on the price + Domestic apple and pear consumption Apples Pears Russian production 1.8 mln ton Russian production ton Import 1.2 mln ton Import ton Industry 1.4 mln ton Industry ton Consumption, fresh 1.6 mln ton Consumption, fresh ton Consumption of local harvest mln ton Half of production is located in individual households Big growers started investing in orchards renovation and CA chambers Production output: 20 tons per Ha Consumption of local harvest Lack of industrial varieties Short shelf life Notable demand for local brands ton Local fruit is consumed during harvest period + Marketing how to teach consumers to distinguish varieties? + Marketing + Marketing
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