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HOOVER INSTITUTION NEWS RELEASE FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE February 18, 2004 KERRY ONLY DEMOCRAT LEADING BUSH IN CALIFORNIA ACCORDING TO NEW HOOVER-KNOWLEDGE NETWORKS POLL STANFORD -- Without even setting foot
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HOOVER INSTITUTION NEWS RELEASE FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE February 18, 2004 KERRY ONLY DEMOCRAT LEADING BUSH IN CALIFORNIA ACCORDING TO NEW HOOVER-KNOWLEDGE NETWORKS POLL STANFORD -- Without even setting foot in the Golden State, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry now leads President Bush, according to a Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks survey of 567 registered California voters. The survey was administered via the web-enabled panel between February 4 and February 13 and has a sampling margin of error of 4.1 percentage points. Respondents were asked how they would vote if the presidential election were between Bush and Kerry. Of those who had a preference, 48 percent preferred Bush and 52 percent Kerry. (When people who hadn t decided were included, Kerry won by ) Kerry is the only Democratic candidate who beats Bush one-on-one; against Edwards, Bush wins narrowly by 52 to 48. (Given the margin of error, Kerry s lead could be as high as +12 or as low as -4). The survey indicates that Californians are already strongly divided by their party affiliation. Bush wins only 8 percent of the state s Democrats, while Kerry is the choice of the same proportion of Republicans. Among Independents, Bush has a slight advantage, by 53 to 47. The survey also reveals that the public sees major differences between the two parties on key issues. By more than 2:1, Californians believe that Republicans are better than Democrats in dealing with terrorism. On healthcare, the results are reversed, with the Democrats holding a 2:1 margin. The issue that is most closely contested is the economy: here, 42 percent favor Democrats, 31 percent Republicans. Survey respondents generally give California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger high marks for his performance in office. Seventy-four percent of the sample rated the governor s performance as good or very good. Schwarzenegger s popularity gives President Bush a potential advantage in his re-election bid; among respondents who approve of Schwarzenegger, Bush defeats Kerry -2 There is a 5 percent gender gap in presidential vote choice. Men split between Bush and Kerry evenly, while Kerry wins (by 5 percent) among women. Bush wins narrowly among white voters (52-48) and Hispanics (51-49), while Kerry is the overwhelming choice of African-Americans (86-14). The poll was designed by Stanford University communications and political science professor Shanto Iyengar and Stanford political science professors David Brady and Morris Fiorina, who also are Hoover Institution fellows, to learn more about voter attitudes and preferences as the California presidential primary approaches on March 2. They worked in concert with Knowledge Networks vice president and manager director Michael Dennis on the administration of the survey and analysis of the results. This is the first of two surveys prior to the California primary. The second survey will measure changes that occur in the views of voters in the days immediately before the election and the most important California propositions. Appendix to the News Announcement for the Stanford University Hoover Institution/Knowledge Networks California Primary Election Survey February 18, 2004 Survey Results The results are from 567 interviews conducted between February 4 and February 13 with registered voters in California. The survey was conducted by Knowledge Networks (http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp) in collaboration with Stanford University s Hoover Institution. This is the first of two surveys to be conducted on the California primary election. The second survey will measure changes that occur in the views of voters in the days immediately before the election and the most important California propositions. Bush-Kerry Trial Heat Results by Party ID Among Registered Voters Bush Kerry Can t Say N=560 Excluding can t say: Bush Kerry N=450 Bush-Edwards Trial Heat Results by Party ID Among Registered Voters Bush Edwards Can t Say N=562 Excluding can t say: Bush Edwards N=422 Percent Voting for Bush (excluding can t say responses) by Party ID Among Registered Voters: Democrats 8 Republicans 92 Independent/Other 53 Bush versus Kerry: Policy Preferences by Preference to Vote for Bush vs. Kerry (Example: 81 percent of those who favor unilateral intervention report a preference for Bush over Kerry) Favor unilateral intervention In-between Favor intervention only w/ UN approval Support free trade In-between Support protecting US industries Top priority to war on Terrorism In-between Top priority to Domestic issues X X X X X X X X X X X Approve Bush s performance 96 4 Bush Performance on Iraq On Iraq (good + very good) In-between (fair) Disapprove (poor + very poor) 3 97 Bush Performance on Economy Approve on Economy 95 5 In-between Disapprove 2 98 Governor Schwarzenegger Approval Ratings Approve Disapprove 11 89 Do you favor Repubs or Dems on: Terrorism Healthcare Education Economy Reps Dems No diff Percent voting for Bush by: Favor Reps on terror 92 Favor Dems 0 No diff 13 Favor Reps on econ 93 Favor Dems on econ 3 No diff 55 Favor Reps on health 100 Favor Dems 12 No diff 69 Methodological Note The poll was conducted February 4 through February 13 using the Knowledge Networks web-enabled panel, which provides a representative sample of Californian households (see The sampling margin of error for the sample 567 likely voters adults is 4.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. The survey results were weighted to U.S. Census population benchmarks for adults residing in the State of California in terms of age, race/ethnicity, education obtainment, and urban/rural, and to the California Secretary of State records for political party identification. Contact information for questions about the methodology: J. Michael Dennis, (650)
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