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Assessment of the Global Potential for CO 2 Mitigation of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) until 2050 Abschätzung der globalen CO 2 Emissionsminderungspotentiale aus dem Einsatz von Carbon Capture and
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Assessment of the Global Potential for CO 2 Mitigation of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) until 2050 Abschätzung der globalen CO 2 Emissionsminderungspotentiale aus dem Einsatz von Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) bis 2050 Diploma thesis at the faculty of mechanical engineering Diplomarbeit an der Fakultät für Maschinenbau Karlsruhe, June 27, 2012 Presented by: Manuel Lämmle Waldensteiner Str Rudersberg Student number: Supervised by: Dipl.-Ing. Dr. rer. nat. Aurelian Florin Badea Institut für Kerntechnik und Reaktorsicherheit, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) Hans Marth Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe ABSTRACT Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) has recently received increasing attention in its feature as a CO 2 mitigation technology. A number of energy scenarios suggest that CCS can contribute substantially to achieving ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets. In this thesis the technological and economic potential of CCS to mitigate CO 2 emissions in the power and industry sector are analyzed. Based on a comprehensive literature review, the current state and the estimated future development of the technology are evaluated, examining the three process stages of capture, transport, and storage. Taking into account the technical restrictions of CCS, the extent to which CCS is theoretically and technically capable to contribute to the global mitigation of CO 2 is assessed. The focal point is the economic performance of CCS, which will eventually play a crucial role in determining the commercial viability of the technology. In order to identify regional opportunities the quantitative analysis is carried out globally but on a regional scale. The CO 2 reduction potential and abatement costs are evaluated in each of these regions individually. Concerning future developments, a timeframe spanning the years is regarded. The current and future technological and economic parameters are subject to many influencing factors and vary significantly. An uncertainty analysis is therefore included to determine realistic cost ranges by application of a Monte Carlo simulation for all economic modelling. A EIDESSTATTLICHE ERKLÄRUNG Hiermit versichere ich, Manuel Lämmle, dass ich die vorliegende Diplomarbeit selbstständig und ohne unerlaubte Hilfe angefertigt und andere als die in der Diplomarbeit angegebenen Hilfsmittel nicht benutzt habe. Alle Stellen, die wörtlich oder sinngemäß aus anderen Schriften entnommen sind, habe ich als solche kenntlich gemacht. Karlsruhe, den 27. Juni 2012 C DANKSAGUNG An dieser Stelle möchte ich die Möglichkeit ergreifen all denjenigen zu danken, die zum erfolgreichen Abschluss dieser Diplomarbeit u beigetragen haben. Im Besonderen bedanke ich mich bei Herrn Hans Marth für die exzellente Betreuung am Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI). Die fachlichen Diskussionen und Korrekturvorschläge haben sehr zum Gelingen der Diplomarbeit beigetragen. Bei Herrn Dr. Badea möchte ich mich für die freundliche Übernahme der Betreuung seitens des Instituts für Kerntechnik und Reaktorsicherheit am Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) bedanken. Für das Korrekturlesen und den kritischen Kommentaren möchte ich mich bei Benjamin Lämmle, Ida und Jan Leonhardt und Saskia Kuhn bedanken. Von ganzem Herzen danke ich meinen Eltern Christa und Manfred Lämmle dafür, dass sie mich während des gesamten Studiums stets mit Geduld und Fürsorge unterstützt haben. E Abstract I CONTENTS Abstract... A List of Figures... V List of Tables... IX List of Acronyms... XII 1 Introduction Motivation Scope of this study Structure State of CCS Technology Sources of CO CO 2 Capture Post-combustion capture Pre-combustion capture Oxyfuel combustion capture CO 2 transport CO 2 storage Geological storage Beneficial reuse of CO 2 and non-geologic storage technologies Safety, leakage, and legislation Status of CCS technology Methodological Framework Definition of potential categories Potential categories for Renewable Energy Technologies Potential categories for Carbon Capture and Storage Principles of economic calculations Basics of corporate financing Allocation of costs in a CCS plant Levelized costs of electricity and levelized costs of product Costs of CO 2 avoided Regional assessment II Abstract 3.4 Assessment of the future development Technological learning Underlying scenarios for boundary conditions Uncertainty analysis Uncertainty associated with CCS Methods dealing with uncertainty Monte Carlo simulation Transport and Storage CO 2 Transport Economic model and input parameter Results from the transport costs model CO 2 Storage Storage capacity assessment Economics of CO 2 storage Integrated transport and storage model Qualitative source-sink matching approach Cost curve methodology Discussion of modelling results Validation of the integrated transport and storage model CCS in the Power Sector Theoretical potential Sources for the assessment Current and future CO 2 emissions Regional break down Technical potential Economic assessment of CCS in the power sector CO 2 capture technologies for different fuel types Economic model Results from economic assessment Life cycle analysis CCS retrofit potential Opportunities and restrictions Economics of retrofits CCS in the Industry Sector Definition of assessed technologies and respective addressable emissions Abstract III 6.2 Economic model Theoretical potential Development of theoretical potential in the industrial sector Regional break down of the theoretical potential CCS in the cement sector Technologies for the application of CCS Technical potential Results from the economic assessment CCS in the iron & steel sector Technologies for the application of CCS Technical potential Results from the economic assessment CCS in the refinery sector Technologies for the application of CCS Technical potential Results from the economic assessment CCS for high purity sources Technologies for the application of CCS Technical Potential Results from the economic assessment Comparative assessment of CCS in the industry sector Regional differences Product costs Cost curves for the industrial sector Discussion and Outlook Comparison of CCS with other CO 2 mitigation technologies Comparison of renewable energy technologies with CCS Comparison of CCS with alternative CO 2 abatement options in the industry sector Critical analysis of the CCS technology Critical appraisal of the study s methodology Outlook Summary A Appendix: Framework and Assumptions B Appendix: Transport and Storage IV Abstract C Appendix: Power sector D Appendix: Industry sector Bibliography... XIV List of Figures V LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1: Division of CCS into three stages: capture, transport, and storage Figure 2-2: CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion per sector in Total emissions: 29 Gt CO Figure 2-3: General approaches for CO 2 capture Figure 2-4: Layout of a post-combustion capture power plant Figure 2-5: Layout of a pre-combustion capture power plant Figure 2-6: Layout of an oxyfuel combustion capture power plant Figure 2-7: Methods for geological storage Figure 2-8: Different trapping mechanism including time frames and storage security Figure 2-9: Overview of stages of development for different capture, transport, and storage technologies Figure 3-1: Illustration of potential categories Figure 3-2: Allocation of costs in a CCS plant Figure 3-3: CO 2 emissions from a typical steam coal plant with and without CCS Figure 3-4: Regional groups and numbering Figure 3-5: Technological learning and learning rates for different energy technologies Figure 3-6: Comparison of different studies on the overnight capital costs of a steam coal power plant with post combustion capture Figure 3-7: Normal distribution probability function (left) and beta distribution probability function (right) Figure 3-8: Frequency distribution density function and corresponding percentiles Figure 4-1: Correlation of mass flow rate Q, transport distance L and transport costs for CO 2 transport in pipelines Figure 4-2: Development of transport costs and associated uncertainty for a 180km pipeline in the reference country USA Figure 4-3: Techno-economic resource pyramid (a). Data and assessment scales for the storage capacity assessment (b) Figure 4-4: Regional break down of the effective storage capacity. Total effective capacity: Gt CO Figure 4-5: Regional CO 2 sequestration potential (years) Figure 4-6: Storage costs per tonne of CO 2 in DOGF and SA, both onshore and offshore in the reference country USA in 2010 ($/t CO2) Figure 4-7: Storage costs and revenues per tonne of CO 2 in conjunction with EOR and ECBM, both onshore and offshore in the reference country USA in 2010 ($/t CO2) VI List of Figures Figure 4-8: Regional differences of storage costs relative to the USA, averaged for DOGF and SA storage Figure 4-9: Emission and storage resources map of the USA Figure 4-10: Transport and storage cost curve for the USA in Figure 4-11: Comparison of regional T&S costs Figure 4-12: Development of regional T&S costs for selected regions from Figure 5-1: Development of sectoral emissions from the power sector (Gt CO2/year) Figure 5-2: Regional break down of emissions from the power sector in Total CO 2 emissions: 11.2 Gt Figure 5-3: Regional break down of CO 2 emissions from steam coal, brown coal, and natural gas combustion Figure 5-4: Technical potential of CCS relative to the theoretical potential Figure 5-5: System boundaries of a CCS power plant used for the economic model Figure 5-6: Levelized Costs of Electricity for different power plant types with and without CCS in the USA in 2010 ($/MWh) Figure 5-7: Costs of avoided CO 2 ($/t CO2) in the USA in Figure 5-8: Probability density function resulting from Monte Carlo simulation for the costs of avoided CO 2 of steam coal post-combustion CCS plant in 2010 and Figure 5-9: Development of costs of avoided CO 2 in years including associated uncertainty ranges (5 th and 95 th percentiles) Figure 5-10: Net plant efficiency of reference (REF) and CCS plants in 2010 and Figure 5-11: Regional differences of the costs of avoided CO 2 for steam coal CCS plants Figure 5-12: Regional cost curve for CCS in the power sector in the USA in Figure 5-13: Global cost curve for CCS in the power sector Figure 5-14: Carbon balance of life-cycle approach (right) compared to the conventional approach (left) Figure 6-1: System boundaries and mass flow in an industrial plant Figure 6-2: Captured and avoided CO 2 emissions for a cement plant with post-combustion capture Figure 6-3: Development of the global theoretical potential per sector Figure 6-4: Regional break down of the theoretical potential in the investigated industry sectors in Total emissions: 5.56 Gt Figure 6-5: Regional and sectoral break down of industrial CO 2 emissions in 2010 and Figure 6-6: Layout of a cement plant with carbon inputs and outputs Figure 6-7: Technical potential in the cement sector relative to theoretical potential Figure 6-8: Break down of costs of CO 2 avoided into cost fractions for cement CCS technologies List of Figures VII Figure 6-9: Development of total costs of CO 2 avoided in the cement sector and associated uncertainty (P5 and P95) Figure 6-10: Schematics of steelmaking processes with CO 2 capture Figure 6-11: Technical potential of CCS in the iron and steel sector relative to theoretical potential Figure 6-12: Break down of costs of CO 2 avoided into cost fractions for iron & steel CCS technologies Figure 6-13: Development of total costs of CO 2 avoided in the iron and steel sector and associated uncertainty Figure 6-14: Technical potential in the refinery sector relative to theoretical potential Figure 6-15: Break down of costs of CO 2 avoided into cost fractions for CCS in the refining sector capture Figure 6-16: Comparison of captured and avoided costs of CCS in refineries in USA in Figure 6-17: Development of total costs of CO 2 avoided in the refining sector and associated uncertainty Figure 6-18: Development of CO 2 emissions from high purity sources per sector Figure 6-19: Technical potential of high purity sources relative to theoretical potential Figure 6-20: Break down of costs of CO 2 avoided into cost fractions for CCS technologies on high purity sources Figure 6-21: Development of total costs of CO 2 avoided for the application of CCS on high purity sources and associated uncertainty Figure 6-22: Relative difference of total costs of CO 2 avoided to reference country USA Figure 6-23: Cost curve of CCS in all investigated industry sectors for the USA in Figure 6-24: Global cost curve for costs of avoided CO 2 in 2010 and Figure 7-1: Cost curves of RET and CCS for OECD Europe in 2030 and Figure A-1: Cumulative stored CO 2 (Mt) Figure A-2: Fuel price developement steam coal (%) Figure A-3: Fuel price developement brown coal (%) Figure A-4: Fuel price natural gas (%) Figure A-5: Fuel price developement oil (%) Figure A-6: Flow chart of random number sampling porcedure for Monte Carlo simulation Figure B-1: Flow chart and overview of Matlab methods used for the transport economic model Figure B-2: Regional differences of transport costs Figure B-3: Flow chart and overview of Matlab methods used for the storage economic model Figure B-4: Regional differences of storage costs in conjunction with EOR VIII List of Figures Figure B-5: Regional differences of storage costs in conjunction with ECBM recovery Figure B-6: Development of storage costs in depleted oil and gas field (DOGF) and saline aquifers (SA) in the reference country USA including uncertainty ranges (P5 and P95) Figure B-7: Development of storage costs/profit in conjunction with enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and enhanced coal bed methane recovery (ECBM) in the reference country USA including uncertainty ranges (P5 and P95) Figure B-8: Basic structure and sequence of the integrated transport and storage model Figure B-9: Flow Chart of the Cost Curve Methodology (Step 2) Figure B-10: Flow chart of the Matlab method rca_analysis() Figure B-11: Regional average T&S cost development from ($/t CO2) Figure B-12: Remaining storage capacity in 2050 as percentage of the original storage capacity in Figure C-1: Flow chart of Matlab calculation method for CCS in the power sector Figure C-2: Emission size distribution of coal and natural gas power plant Figure C-3: Development of levelized costs of electricity of CCS plants in USA including uncertainty ranges Figure C-4: Development of levelized costs of electricity of reference plants in USA including uncertainty ranges Figure C-5: Regional differences of the costs of avoided CO 2 for brown coal CCS plants Figure C-6: Regional differences of the costs of avoided CO 2 for natural gas CCS plants Figure D-1: Flow chart of matlab calculation for industrial plants Figure D-2: Size distribution function of plants in the industry sector List of Tables IX LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1: Current and future technologies for post-combustion capture Table 2-2: Current and future technologies for pre-combustion capture Table 2-3: Current and future technologies for oxyfuel combustion capture. Sources: (IEA, 2008a; Global CCS Institute, 2009; ZEP, 2011) Table 2-4: Overview of storage technologies and their principal trapping mechanism Table 2-5: Current activities and projects of different CCS technologies Table 3-1 Summary of variables included ( ) or excluded ( ) in the uncertainty analysis Table 4-1: Cost components of CO 2 transport in pipeline including respective share of total costs Table 4-2: Input parameters for the transport costs model including uncertainty ranges Table 4-3: Discount factors for the makeshift estimation of effective capacity from the theoretical capacity Table 4-4: Global theoretical and effective CO 2 storage capacity Table 4-5: Cost components and elements for the storage of CO Table 4-6: Input parameter for capex and opex for the storage of CO 2 including uncertainty ranges ($ 2010/t CO2,stored) Table 4-7: Qualitative source sink matching (QSSM) factors for the USA Table 4-8: Input variables and calculated variables for the cost curve methodology Table 4-9: Overview of global average results of the Integrated T&S model Table 5-1: Sources for the assessment of the theoretical potential Table 5-2: Overview of capture technologies for the investigated fuel types Table 5-3: Emission factors of steam coal, brown coal, and natural gas (t CO2 /GJ) Table 5-4: Overview of key economic and technical parameters (most likely values) Table 5-5: Technological learning rates for net efficiency and relative efficiency penalty Table 5-6: Overview of results from the economic assessment of newly-built CCS plants in the reference country USA and reference year Table 5-7: Overview of results from the economic assessment for a newly-built CCS plant in the reference country USA in Table 5-8: Emission components included in the life cycle analysis Table 5-9: Limiting factors for CCS retrofits Table 5-10: Overview of retrofit economics for coal plants found in literature Table 6-1: Technological restrictions of capture technologies and their addressable onsite emissions X List of Tables Table 6-2: Subdivision of sectoral emissions, which can be addressed by capture technologies in the refinery and high purity sector Table 6-3: Components for technological learning Table 6-4: Sources for the assessment of the theoretical potential Table 6-5: Levelized product costs without (REF) and with (CCS) application of CCS Table 7-1: Alternative CO 2 mitigation options in the industry sector Table A-1: Definition of country groups Table A-2: Regional cost factors & regional fuel prices Table A-3: Cumulative CO 2 stored (Mt) Table A-4: Cumulative installed capacity in the energy sector (GW) Table A-5: Cumulative installed capacity in the industry sector (number of projects) Table A-6: Fuel price development (%) Table B-1: Input parameter set for the economic transport model Table B-2: Results from modelling of transport costs for the USA in years ($/t CO2) Table B-3: Literature overview for the regional capacity assessment Table B-4: Theoretical storage capacity per storage technology and country (Mt CO2) Table B-5: Effective storage capacity per storage technology and country (Mt CO2) Table B-6: Input parameter set for storage costs model Table B-7: Storage costs for different storage types in the reference country USA Table B-8: Break down of storage costs into cost components for the reference country USA Table B-9: Targeted storage injection rate per region and year Table B-10: QSSM Factors for storage types and different distance categories Table B-11: Average T&S costs per region and year ($/t CO2,stored) Table C-1: Input parameter for the learning rate methodology Table C-2: Cumulative installed capacity of CCS power plants Table C-3: Input parameter set for CCS steam coal power plants Table C-4: Input parameter set for CCS brown coal power plants Table C-5: Input parameter set for CCS natural gas power plant Table C-6: CO 2 emissions from power generation with steam coal (Mt/year) Table C-7: CO 2 emissions from power generation with brown coal (Mt/year) Table C-8: CO 2 emissions from power generation with natural gas (Mt/year) List of Tables XI Table C-9: Technical potential of CCS in the power sector relative to theoretical potential Table C-10: Levelized costs of electricity for CCS plants and non-ccs plants (REF) in the reference country USA and reference year 2010 ($/MWh) Table C-11: Levelized costs of electricity for CCS plants and non-ccs plants (REF) in the reference country USA in 2050 ($/MWh) Table C-12: Costs of avoided for CCS plants in the reference country USA in 2010([$/t CO2,avoided ) Table C-13: Costs of avoided for CCS plants in the reference country USA in 2050 ($/t CO2,avoided ) Table C-14: Efficiency development of CCS and reference power pl
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